Joint Workshop “Air Transport Forecasting” in cooperation with Airbus, DLR and G.A.R.S.

16th/17th October 2016
Air Transport Forecasting, Workshop organised in cooperation with Airbus and DLR

Workshop Final Program

Keynote Address ‘The value of travel time reliability revealed by trip duration decisions’
Marc Gaudry, Université de Montréal

‘The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable’ – does this apply to Aviation?
Ken Button, George Mason University, Fairfax

Forecasts of German airports development – Lessons learned from two most active forecasters
Friedrich Thießen, Technical University Chemnitz

The Airbus Global Market Forecast and an introduction to the GMF Methodology, Andrew Gordon, Airbus

The drivers of long-run air passenger market growth
David Oxley, IATA

The Airbus Message: Traffic will double in the next 15 years. Will it?
Dieter Wilken, DLR Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research, Cologne

Market Maturity in Air Travel
David Metz, University College London and Anne Graham, University of Westminster

The airline profit cycle – causes, drivers and potential mitigation
Eva Cronrath, DLR Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research, Cologne

Forecasting the benefits of a third runway in London Heathrow
Chris Cuttle, Frontier Economics, London

Economically viable hubs in Africa
Nicole Adler, Hebrew University, Jerusalem

Route forecasting and lack of data
Benedikt Mandel, Mkmetrik, Karlsruhe

EU-China Open Skies Agreement, Game Theory Analysis on the Leadership Battle of International Regime Making
Jiangtian Xu, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom

STATFOR Forecast Accuracy
Elsa Freville, EUROCONTROL

High-Speed Train Model re-calibration in the STATFOR forecast
Pedro Martins, EUROCONTROL

Estimating the demand potential for new airline services within Europe
Valentijn van Spijker, seo economisch onderzoek

The importance of national borders and language differences on the choice of airport in Belgium and The Netherlands
Hugo Gordijn, Institute for Transport Policy Analysis of the Netherlands

A new direct demand model of long-term forecasting air passengers and air transport movements at German airports
Marc Gelhausen, DLR Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research, Cologne

Developing Forecasts for Global Air Transport System Studies
Ivan Terekhov, Katrin Kölker, Niclas Dzikus, Robin Ghosh, Peter Bießlich, Malte Niklaß, Volker Gollnick, Air Transportation Systems, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Hamburg and Institute of Air Transportation Systems, Hamburg University of Technology